Posts Tagged ‘C15’

IS STABILITY FOR REGIONAL DISPARITIES OF UNEMPLOYMENT RATES TRULY MYSTERIOUS? AN ANALYSIS FROM STATISTICAL APPROACH

Tsunetada HIROBE

Professor, Department of Economics, Meikai University, 1 Akemi, Urayasu, Chiba 279-8550, Japan

tsune@meikai.ac.jp

Abstract

The paper analyzes the peculiar phenomenon of regional disparities brought by the changes in the geographical distribution of US unemployment rates. Specifically, we investigate the characteristics concerning the gap of that regional distribution especially focusing upon the statistical analysis by mainly an exploratory way. Reduction in disparities or Expansion in disparities usually involves reducing or increasing the overall level of distribution, and the so-called relative disparity between all states of the U.S. shows an extremely stable transition of distribution within a certain range. This is a mysterious phenomenon that is also shown in any other country in the world. One of the reasons that the regional distribution of unemployment rates becomes stable is derived from the robustness of that geographical distribution; this is one of the reasons that the unemployment rate does not fluctuate significantly. Even if that robustness deteriorates for some reason, then the unemployment rate updates the values of minimum and maximum, or only just the range of variation expands; the relative disparities between regions tend to be offset by increases or decreases in the same direction as a result. Since that range is usually very limited, the gap frequently fluctuates up and down within a confined extent and it does not necessarily converge or diverge to a specific point; it would constantly change within the allowable fluctuation range depending on the socio-economic situation.

Keywords: unemployment rate, regional disparity, convergence, equilibrium, stability

JEL classification: C13, C15, J69, R12, R19

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ECONOMIC CONTAGION UNDER UNCERTAINTY: CGE WITH A MONTE CARLO EXPERIMENT

Hiroshi SAKAMOTO

Research Associate Professor Asian Growth Research Institute (AGI) 11-4 Otemachi, Kokurakita, Kitakyushu, 803-0814 JAPAN Tel: +81 93 583 6202; Fax: +81 93 583 4602

sakamoto@agi.or.jp

Abstract

Economic contagion is increasingly felt as economic interdependence deepens in today’s economy. This study quantitatively investigates how economic shocks of a certain country influence a different country. Usually, a positive shock has a positive influence, and a negative shock has a negative influence. For instance, the monetary crisis of Europe affected the Asian economy as well as the economy of Europe itself. The Chinese economy, which recently accomplished the most remarkable economic growth in the Asian region, has also declined in rates of growth, and has become a risk factor for the global economy. The downturn of the economy in regions with economic power may have a negative influence on the economy of other countries. Under such circumstances, this study quantitatively analyzes the economic shock influence of a certain country to other countries, at the same time there is a possibility of influence to the opposite direction supposing the economic shock occurs under uncertainty. The model employed in the study uses the general algebraic modeling system (GAMS), it uses the global trade analysis project (GTAP) database, which is compiled as a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model using multiple countries’ data. Moreover, this database is constantly updated to a recent year to feature more realistic knowledge. Furthermore, this study uses the Monte Carlo experiment to model uncertainty. This is realizable by adding the random number of a normal distribution to the exogenous variables of the model.

Keywords: Economic Contagion, Multi-country Computable General Equilibrium Model, Monte Carlo Experiment

JEL classification: C15, C68, D58, O53, R13

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