Tag: J01

A MODEL FOR THE JOB DEMAND FORECASTING IN THE ARCTIC ZONE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION BASED ON TIME SERIES

Zhanna PETUKHOVA

Professor, Department of Economics, Management and Organization of Production, Norilsk State Industrial Institute

zh-petukhova@ust-hk.com.cn

Mikhail PETUKHOV

Associate Professor, Department of Information Systems and Technologies, Norilsk State Industrial Institute

mpetukhov@nanyang-uni.com

Igor BELYAEV

Senior Lecturer, Department of Information Systems and Technologies, Norilsk State Industrial Institute

 belyaev@lund-univer.eu

Lyudmila BODRYAKOVA

Associate Professor, Department of Information Systems and Technologies, Norilsk State Industrial Institute

 ln-bodryakova@lund-univer.eu

Abstract

The Russian Federation is the largest country in the world, whose territory includes the Arctic regions. The area of the land territories of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF) is approximately 3.700,000 km2. The population of the Arctic Zone of Russia is approximately 7 million people, which is equal to 5% of the population of the entire Russian Federation. The purpose of this study is to investigate and analyse regression models for predicting the time series of the number of jobs in the labour market of the Russian Federation, to select an adequate model characterised by a minimum average relative error and a maximum lead time, or to select several adequate models for different forecasting periods: short-term, medium-term and long-term. The study examines the possibilities of predicting the situation in the labour market of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation, the demand for specialists in various industries using regression models for forecasting a time series. The simulation was performed using the Statistica software. As a result of the conducted studies, adequate forecasting models were obtained in the time period from 01.01.2020 to 01.01.2021, taking into account the epidemiological situation in the country. Thus, the best model with the smallest error was determined.

Keywords: labour market, regression models, education, autocorrelation function, autoregression.

JEL classification: I15, J11, J01

 pp. 291-298

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INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN SOUTHEAST ASIAN COUNTRIES: A PANEL GMM APPLICATION ON PHILLIPS CURVE

ALIASUDDIN

Associate Professor at the Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh, Indonesia

aliasuddin@unsyiah.ac.id

Sofyan SYAHNUR

Associate Professor at the Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business,Universitas Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh, Indonesia

kabari_sofyan@unsyiah.ac.id

MALIA

Graduate Student at the Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh, Indonesia

malia1980@mhs.unsyiah.ac.id

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the relationship between inflation and unemployment in 10 Southeast Asian from 1996 to 2016 using 210 data samples. The estimation results, using the GMM panel method, showed that the use of Instrument Variables (IV) is valid for the model and the results show a negative and significant relationship between inflation and unemployment. The optimal value of inflation and unemployment for the Southeast Asian Region were found to be 4 percent and 8 percent respectively. This means that a trade-off has taken place. Thus, the existence of the Phillips Curve in Southeast Asian countries during the period of 1996-2016 can be proven. In accordance with the Phillips Curve review, if the trade-off occurs, the government cannot resolve both problems simultaneously. In other words, policy makers must be able to choose the problem to be addressed first, either by implementing monetary policy, fiscal policy or both, so that economic stability and public welfare are maintained.

Keywords: Inflation, Unemployment, Phillips Curve, Panel GMM, Southeast Asia.

JEL classification: E24, E31, C23, J01

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ECONOMIC TRENDS OF THE YOUTH LABOR MARKET IN UZBEKISTAN

Kalandar ABDURAKHMANOV

PhD in Economics, Professor, Tashkent Branch of G.V. Plekhanov Russian University of Economics

kalandar.abdurakhmanov1@gmail.com

Nodira ZOKIROVA

PhD in Economics, Professor, Tashkent Branch of G.V. Plekhanov Russian University of Economics

Abstract

The relevance of the study, confirmed by the growing scientific interest in the topic of youth employment in the labor market, is increasing in the context of the new paradigm of innovative development of the national economy in Uzbekistan. The feasibility of studying the economic aspects of the youth labor market development is determined by the high birth rate and the growing unmet demand of the population for educational services. It is obvious that the problem of ensuring the affordability of quality higher education as the main factor in the employment of young people in Uzbekistan is complicated and multidimensional. It is important to explore trends, formulate ways to develop the youth labor market and create a system for monitoring the compliance of the educational market offer with the employers’ demands in the labor market. This article is aimed at assessing the current realities, predicting the prospects for the foreseeable future, justifying the ways and specific measures to create irreversible conditions for the convergence of science, education and the real economy in the labor market of Uzbekistan.

Keywords: Unemployment, labor market, youth, education, employment

JEL classification: J00, J01, J08, J2, J20, J4, J40, J6, J60, J7, J70, J8, J80
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