Tag: O53

TOURISM AND ECONOMIC GROWTH NEXUS IN INDONESIA: THE DYNAMIC PANEL DATA APPROACH

Elvina PRIMAYESA

Faculty of Economics and Business, Diponegoro University, Semarang, Indonesia, Faculty of Economics, Andalas University, Padang, Indonesia

yesa040486@gmail.com

Wahyu WIDODO

Faculty of Economics and Business, Diponegoro University, Semarang, Indonesia

wahyuwid2002@live.undip.ac.id

F.X. SUGIYANTO

Faculty of Economics and Business, Diponegoro University, Semarang, Indonesia

fxsugiyanto09@gmail.com

Abstract

The positive impact of tourism on economic growth is generally influenced by various indicators at both global and national levels. However, the question remains whether tourism encourages economic growth or vice versa. This paper examines the importance of tourism as a conditioning factor for economic growth in Indonesia. The validity of the relationship between tourism and economic growth can be examined by using the dynamic panel data estimation approach and convergence analysis to provide evidence of the impact of tourism on economic growth in Indonesia. In accordance with the initial hypothesis on tourism and economic growth, the result shows that the former can encourage the latter, although there is no indication of convergence among provinces in Indonesia. Therefore, if the supply characteristics of the tourism sector are improved, then it can be considered as an alternative source for stimulating economic growth in Indonesia.

Keywords: Economic Growth, Tourism, Dynamic Panel Data, Convergence

JEL classification: C23, L83, O40, O53
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ECONOMIC CONTAGION UNDER UNCERTAINTY: CGE WITH A MONTE CARLO EXPERIMENT

Hiroshi SAKAMOTO

Research Associate Professor Asian Growth Research Institute (AGI) 11-4 Otemachi, Kokurakita, Kitakyushu, 803-0814 JAPAN Tel: +81 93 583 6202; Fax: +81 93 583 4602

sakamoto@agi.or.jp

Abstract

Economic contagion is increasingly felt as economic interdependence deepens in today’s economy. This study quantitatively investigates how economic shocks of a certain country influence a different country. Usually, a positive shock has a positive influence, and a negative shock has a negative influence. For instance, the monetary crisis of Europe affected the Asian economy as well as the economy of Europe itself. The Chinese economy, which recently accomplished the most remarkable economic growth in the Asian region, has also declined in rates of growth, and has become a risk factor for the global economy. The downturn of the economy in regions with economic power may have a negative influence on the economy of other countries. Under such circumstances, this study quantitatively analyzes the economic shock influence of a certain country to other countries, at the same time there is a possibility of influence to the opposite direction supposing the economic shock occurs under uncertainty. The model employed in the study uses the general algebraic modeling system (GAMS), it uses the global trade analysis project (GTAP) database, which is compiled as a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model using multiple countries’ data. Moreover, this database is constantly updated to a recent year to feature more realistic knowledge. Furthermore, this study uses the Monte Carlo experiment to model uncertainty. This is realizable by adding the random number of a normal distribution to the exogenous variables of the model.

Keywords: Economic Contagion, Multi-country Computable General Equilibrium Model, Monte Carlo Experiment

JEL classification: C15, C68, D58, O53, R13

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