Posts Tagged ‘Uncertainty’

MANAGEMENT OF THE ECONOMIC CAPACITY OF THE REGION ON THE BASIS OF FORESIGHT (ON THE EXAMPLE OF ADYGEA, RUSSIA)

Elena Nikolaevna ZAKHAROVA

Adyghe State University, Maikop

Elena Evgenyevna KARDAVA

Branch Adygeya State University in Belorechensk
352630, Krasnodar region,
Belorechensk Street. March 8 57/1
mtrushin@mail.ru

Rita Rafaelovna AVANESOVA

Branch Adygeya State University in Belorechensk
352630, Belorechensk,
Belorechensk Street. March 8 57/1

Elena Petrovna AVRAMENKO

Branch Adygeya State University in Belorechensk
352630, Belorechensk,
Belorechensk Street. March 8 57/1

Abstract

In connection with the aggravation of crisis phenomena in the economy of Russia caused by the events in Ukraine, the sanctions of the West, oil prices reduction and a decline in the ruble, a new approach to strategic planning is required. Foresight technology is the most appropriate one. The purpose of this article is to give a brief description of the foresight as a technology of foreseeing and identifying the most promising points of regional capacity, aimed at improving the competitiveness on the example of a particular region of the Russian Federation – the Republic of Adygea. The authors note that conducting the regional foresight project must be preceded by an analysis of economic, natural, innovative, and information- technological capacity of the region. The article reviews the methods for foresight, gives the characteristics of natural, economic, innovation and information- technological capacity of the Republic of Adygea. In the article the development problems of the region, uncertainty factors and trends of socio-economic changes in the republic have been identified. The implementation of the foresight project will allow to form the basis for social partnership of government, business and social community in order to better exploit opportunities and the implementation of the economic capacity of the region.

Keywords: foresight, forecasting, anticipation, socio-economic development, regional capacity, long-term strategy, uncertainty

JEL classification:
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A STOCHASTIC MODEL OF MIGRANT RESCUE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA

Amitrajeet A. BATABYAL

Department of Economics, Rochester Institute of Technology, 92 Lomb Memorial Drive, Rochester, NY 14623-5604, USA.
aabgsh@rit.edu

Hamid BELADI

Department of Economics, University of Texas at San Antonio, One UTSA Circle, San Antonio, TX 78249-0631, USA.
Hamid.Beladi@utsa.edu

Abstract
We theoretically study the rescue of destitute migrants seeking to reach Europe on boats across the Mediterranean Sea. To this end, we first construct a discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC) model of a stylized rescue process. Second, we specify the one-step transition probabilities of the DTMC. Third, we delineate a recursive algorithm that can be used to compute the limiting or steady-state probabilities of our DTMC model. Finally, we use these limiting probabilities to compute the average throughput. This metric is an efficiency measure and it tells us the long run expected number of migrants that are rescued by the stylized rescue process under study.
Keywords: Markov Chain, Mediterranean Sea, Migrant, Rescue, Uncertainty
JEL classification: J61, D81
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