Posts Tagged ‘R23’

PATTERNS OF MAINLY TOURISM SECTORS AT LOCAL LEVEL BY EMPLOYEE’S CHARACTERISTICS USING GIS MULTIVARIATE CLUSTERING ANALYSIS – ROMANIA CASE STUDY

Cristina LINCARU

Dr, FeRSA, Department of Labour Market, National Scientific Research Institute for Labour and Social Protection, Bucharest, Romania ORCID ID: 0000-0001-6596-1820

cristina.lincaru@yahoo.de

Speranța PÎRCIOG

Dr, Scientific Director, National Scientific Research Institute for Labour and Social Protection, Bucharest, Romania ORCID ID: 0000-0003-0215-038X

pirciog@incsmps.ro

Draga ATANASIU

Senior Researcher, National Scientific Research Institute for Labour and Social Protection, Bucharest, Romania ORCID ID: 0000-0002-9695-8592

incsmps1@incsmps.ro

Cristina STROE

Senior Researcher, Department of Social Policies, National Scientific Research Institute for Labour and Social Protection, Bucharest, Romania ORCID ID: 0000-0001-8384-6084

cristinaradu@incsmps.ro

Vasilica CIUCĂ

Dr, Dr, General Director, National Scientific Research Institute for Labour and Social Protection, Bucharest, Romania ORCID ID: 0000-0003-4687-6377

silviaciuca@incsmps.ro

Adriana GRIGORESCU

Dr., Department of Public Management, National University of Political Studies and Public Administration,  Correspondent Member of Academy of Romanian Scientists, Bucharest, Romania ORCID ID: 0000-0003-4212-6974

adrianagrigorescu11@gmail.com

Abstract

The tourism sector, before the Corona Strikes, works as a inclusive development engine for many countries’ economies and labour markets. In a global world, with increasing travel opportunities, tourism offers both labours intensive and knowledge-intensive activities, across many economic sectors. Tourism is a spatially dependent sector and also a tradable one. The Methodology for tourism statistics (Eurostat 2014),  Tourism Satellite Accounts (TSA 2010) and The International Recommendations for Tourism Statistics 2008 (IRTS 2008) differentiate the “mainly tourism” industries at four digits. We identify the natural cluster by number and pattern, at 3189 local spatial units (NUTS 5) by eight attribute variable employees: gender (male, female), age (youth, adult and aged) and education detained level (low, medium and high). Sectors are detailed at two digits only (H51- Air transport, I55 – Hotels and other accommodation facilities and N79-Activities of tourist agencies and tour operators; other reservation services and tourist assistance). Romanian National Institute of Statistics provides 2011 Census data. We apply the Multivariate Clustering Analysis with K Means algorithm as a Spatial Statistical Tool in Arc Gis Pro 2.3, an unsupervised machine learning an Artificial Intelligence technique, appropriate for Big Data. Clusters resulted illustrates natural hidden patterns of local labour markets pooling in the sense of Urban& Jacobian economies, but also some insight regarding the Morettian externalities sources. These results are useful for Regions Smart Specialisation Strategies development of human resources & talents to increase innovation capabilities and inclusive job creation, but also for a prompt recovery post-Covid Pandemic.

Keywords: tourism, labour force characteristics, Multivariate Clustering Analysis, local labour markets, regional specialisation, education level, age and gender analysis

JEL classification: J210, C38, R23

read more

CHANGES IN HUMAN GEOGRAPHY: SCENARIOS OF COUNTER-URBANIZATION IN THE CONTEXT OF ECONOMIC CRISIS

Evgenia ANASTASIOU

Postdoctoral Researcher, University of Thessaly

evanastasiou@uth.gr

Abstract

The last decade economic developments affected to a large extend the demographic structure of Greece. The period 2001-2011 is characterized by a net slowdown of the intense urbanization trend, while in the context of crisis there have been identified counter-urban trends, revealing new attractiveness zones in the rural areas. These indications of mobility do not concern entirely the countryside as the newcomers settle only in specific rural spatial units. At the same time these areas have specific features that facilitate the establishment of a new population, such as population dynamics, tourism development, agricultural activity, services and structures, reduction of geographical isolation, low cost of living and habitation. The future of internal migration in Greece heavily depends on existing trends as well as future economic, social and political developments. Though, the lack of official data for the period after 2011 constrains our understanding for the development of internal migration and particularly counter-urban trends in Greece. The present paper raises the issue of the prospects of the establishment of the Greek population in the countryside, taking into account the pull factors of rural areas. Through Foresight and Strategic Thinking Methods, a longer-term framework is being developed to reflect the potential strategic choices of the internal migrants. This approach is based on a mainly qualitative analysis, scenario planning, in order to present the prerequisites for the further development of such a type of mobility.

Keywords: foresight, scenario planning, internal migration, population, countryside

JEL classification: J1, J6, J11, R23

read more

SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF MIGRATION ON REGIONAL GROWTH IN IRAN (2006-16)

Shekoofeh FARAHMAND

Associate Professor, Economics Department, University of Isfahan, Iran

sh.farahmand@ase.ui.ac.ir

Narges GHASEMIAN

Ph.D candidate of economics, Alzahra University of Tehran, Iran

N.Ghasemian@alzahra.ac.ir

Abstract

One of the most important applications of economic growth models is for regional economic growth. In regional growth studies, it is necessary to consider spatial effects because of spatial dependence among the growth rates of regions. This research investigates the impact between net migration and its spatial lag on regional growth, based on the neoclassical (Solow) growth model. The used model in the study is the Dynamic Panel Data (DPD) which has been specified as a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) and estimated by the spatial generalized method of moments (SGMM). The specified model has been tested for the 30 provinces of Iran in the period of 2006-16. The estimated results show that the time-lagged dependent variable had a positive and highly significant effect on income per capita. The impact of initial income per capita on growth is negative, and the convergence hypothesis is thus accepted. That is, poor provinces grow faster than the rich. The income per capita and growth are positively related to net migration rate. Expectedly, the new coming people to a province would increase income per capita and growth. The estimated coefficient of the spatial lag of the dependent variable is statistically significant and demonstrates spatial dependence in income as well as economic growth among the provinces of Iran. Every province’s growth rate was positively impacted by the economic growth of its neighbors. However, net migration has no spatial effect on income per capita and growth. In other words, the regional economic growth has not been influenced by migration to neighboring provinces.

Keywords: Neoclassical growth model, convergence, migration, spatial Durbin model, spatial generalized method of moments.

JEL classification: O47, C23, R23
read more